The impacts of climate change are increasingly evident worldwide as natural disasters such, as wildfires and hurricanes occur frequently and affect regions in various countries including the U.S.. This situation has prompted scientists and migration specialists to ponder the possibility of population movements, across borders as people seek more habitable places to live.
The Rise of Climate Migration
Throughout history, people had to leave their homes because of disasters. The idea of “climate migrant” or “climate refugee” is relatively recent, in the later part of the 20th century when scientists acknowledged that certain areas would become unlivable due to climate change. For instance, some climate predictions indicate that by 2070 about a fifth of the globe could be too hot, for habitation. Experts anticipate that the consequences of climate change may trigger an increase, in migration as individuals search for safer and more welcoming environments.
The Scale of Climate Displacement
The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of scientists working under the United Nations, reveals that more than 3 billion people live in areas vulnerable to climate-related hazards. Since 2008, around 20 million people per year have been displaced, primarily due to storms and floods.
However, the report also notes that the majority of climate migration will likely occur within countries, rather than across international borders. Research into climate migration shows that most displaced individuals tend to stay closer to home. In fact, the global south is the largest host for forcibly displaced people, whether they are refugees or climate migrants, with 85% of refugees being displaced from and hosted within these regions.
Climate Change and Internal Migration in the U.S.
In the United States, the effects of climate migration will likely be seen in large internal movements of people. Many Americans from the southern U.S., where climate hazards like heatwaves and flooding are more common, are expected to relocate to urban areas in the northern U.S. Over the next 45 years, about 1 in 12 Americans in the southern U.S. could move toward regions like California, the Mountain West, or the Northwest. Some cities in the Northeast and Northwest may see their populations grow by up to 10% as people move away from hotter, more dangerous regions.
Factors Influencing Migration
While climate change is a key factor driving migration, the most significant predictor of whether people will move is not just the climate or natural disasters, but the resources and vulnerabilities of the individuals affected. Migration scholar Hein de Haas pointed out that extreme poverty often prevents people from migrating, meaning that the most vulnerable individuals are also the least likely to escape the worst effects of climate change.
This highlights the complexity of migration, as people’s ability to move is influenced by many interconnected factors. Governments and organizations must base migration policies on accurate, non-sensationalized data to address both the impacts of climate change and the root causes of migration, such as poverty and lack of resources.
The future of migration is shaped by many factors, and climate change is one of the most significant challenges. As natural disasters become more common and some areas become uninhabitable, the movement of people—both internally and internationally is expected to increase. However, the ability of people to move will largely depend on their circumstances, including economic resources and vulnerability to environmental harm. Policymakers must take a holistic approach to migration, addressing both climate change and the broader socio-economic conditions that contribute to displacement.
For more information on how climate change might affect migration patterns, contact Law and Visas for guidance on immigration and policies that may impact your future.
