UK Immigration Trends and Predictions for 2024

UK Visa Applications Drop After Immigration Rule Changes

The number of people applying for visas to work, study, or join family in the UK has dropped significantly over the past year. UK visa applications drop by one-third, from about 141,000 in July 2023 to 91,000 in recent months. This sharp decline follows changes to immigration rules made by the UK’s Conservative government.

What Changed?

The government introduced new rules restricting international students and health or social care workers from bringing their family members to the UK. These changes have had a noticeable impact:

  • Applications for health and care worker visas fell by a staggering 80%, dropping to just 2,900.
  • Student visa applications also declined, partly due to specific factors like the Nigerian currency crisis.

The government aims to reduce migration and is encouraging the training of local workers to address skills shortages. A Home Office spokesperson emphasized that immigration should bring benefits to the UK but must be managed fairly.

Impact on Healthcare and Universities

Nadra Ahmed, co-chair of the National Care Association, highlighted the challenges facing the care sector. She mentioned that some staff are leaving the UK, moving to countries with more welcoming immigration policies. Ahmed also warned that building a domestic workforce will take years, and rising vacancies could push the sector to unsustainable levels.

The education sector is also feeling the pressure. With fewer international students applying, universities may face financial difficulties, especially since they rely heavily on international fees.

A Look at the Numbers

Recent migration data reflects the government’s efforts to lower net migration:

  • Net migration reached a record 764,000 in 2022 but dropped by 10% the following year.
  • The Migration Observatory noted that it’s too early to determine whether this marks the start of a long-term trend.

Other Policy Changes on UK visa applications drop

The government has made several adjustments to tighten immigration rules:

  1. Salary Thresholds:
    • The minimum salary for skilled workers applying for visas increased from £26,200 to £38,700.
    • To bring family members to the UK, applicants now need a salary of at least £29,000. This is a reduction from an initially proposed threshold of £38,700 after public backlash.
  2. Points-Based System:
    Skilled worker applicants need 70 points to qualify. Points are awarded for factors like job offers in sectors with shortages or advanced qualifications like a PhD.
  3. Dependants:
    • In 2021, the UK relaxed rules to allow care workers to bring family members, addressing recruitment issues post-Brexit.
    • By 2023, the policy shifted, banning most care workers and students from bringing dependants. This followed a surge in dependent visas, which rose from 16,000 in 2019 to 135,000 in 2022.

While the new rules aim to reduce migration, they’ve sparked concerns across various sectors. The care industry faces workforce challenges, and universities fear losing revenue. The Migration Advisory Committee is currently reviewing policies, and the new Labour government plans to maintain the £29,000 threshold until the review is complete.

The UK’s approach to immigration continues to evolve, with policymakers balancing public concerns about migration numbers and the needs of key industries.

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